The conflict in Ukraine is a certainty for current events this week, but activity will be largely off the agenda – except for events such as the UK’s reopening of its embassy in Kyiv – for the next seven days. Somewhat ironically, there’s a long list of other war anniversaries this week – from Monday’s Anzac Day to Vietnam’s Saturday commemoration of Liberation Day. A reminder that peace has been an unattainable dream for this modern day world.
At the same time, we are in a kind of small vacation period. Easter, Orthodox or not, has passed and this coming Sunday announces the various May Day celebrations around the world.
Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election on Sunday night, with the incumbent’s far-right rival conceding shortly after early projections showed him winning more than 58% of the vote. Stay tuned to the Financial Times for analysis this week.
It’s a fairly comprehensive week for economic news with inflation figures for France, Germany and Eurozone countries as well as first quarter GDP estimates for the Eurozone, the United States, Korea, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, as well as a decision on the Bank’s interest rates. from Japan.
The conflict in Ukraine has an immediate and longer-term impact on the global economy, as the IMF pointed out last week when it cut growth forecasts for many countries.
The new world (dis)order was described by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF, in an interview with the FT. “If we become a world made up of many different blocks, we will have to undo a lot of the integrated economies that we have built and the supply chains that we have built. . . and build something else that is narrower [and] smaller in scope,” he said.
“There will be adjustment costs [and] there will be efficiency losses and this could lead to increased unit costs because things are not done as efficiently as before.
It will be a week for geeks in terms of corporate earnings this week. Big Tech had a good pandemic. The question now is whether Meta, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Microsoft or Spotify can sustain their strong growth rates. After Netflix’s precipitous drop in subscriber numbers last week, investors are no doubt nervous, although, as has been pointed out, there is a difference between a business purely focused on streaming television and film and other technology companies.
Golden child Apple may now consider itself a Hollywood gamer after winning the top prize at the Oscars, but its investors are worried about its ability to deliver new tech kit given the wave of lockdowns in many of its Chinese manufacturing hubs . This next iPhone model won’t happen on its own, you know. Morgan Stanley analysts say Wall Street’s consensus forecast for the June quarter of $86.7 billion (up 6% year-on-year) “looks high” given Chief Executive Tim Cook’s typical caution in guidance material.
Read the rest of the week ahead schedule here