The success of a “meaningful reorganization” of Russian forces in Ukraine will be “key” in deciding the outcome of Kyiv’s push to drive them out of the area around Kherson, the UK Defense Ministry has said.
The Defense Ministry posted its latest intelligence update on Twitter on Tuesday after Ukraine claimed on Monday it had launched a counterattack to retake Kherson, which Russia captured at the start of its new attack on Ukraine. in February.
The Defense Ministry acknowledged Kyiv’s decision, saying “several brigades” of the Ukrainian Armed Forces had stepped up artillery fire in areas in the south of the country. But it was “not yet possible” to confirm the extent of their progress, the ministry said.
He noted, however, that since the beginning of August Russia had made “significant efforts” to reinforce its troops on the west bank of the Dnipro around Kherson. Most Russian forces are east of the river.
Latest Defense Intelligence Update on the situation in Ukraine – August 30, 2022
Read more about the UK government’s response: https://t.co/q3wYzVuyKz
— Ministry of Defense 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 30, 2022
“The 49th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District was most likely reinforced by elements of the 35th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District,” the ministry wrote.
Most units around Kherson were likely understaffed and dependent on shaky supply lines, the ministry added.
“This integration of [the two district] suggest a significant reorganization of the Russian force in Ukraine,” the ministry wrote.
There was a “realistic possibility” that Russia had “acted to streamline” the command structure that contributed to its poor performance at the start of the invasion, the Defense Ministry added.
The success of this reorganization would be essential to the outcome of the Ukrainian offensive, the department concluded.
“If Ukraine succeeds in undertaking sustained offensive operations, the cohesion of this untested structure will likely be a key factor in the sustainability of Russian defenses in the south,” the department wrote.